Trends and Projections in Climate - Related Stressors Impacting Arctic Marine Ecosystems—A CMIP6 Model Analysis

Steiner and Reader (2024) analysed 11 Earth System Models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess how climate factors, such as temperature, sea ice concentration, oxygen, and ocean acidification, affect Arctic marine ecosystems. Combined stressors—warming, acidification, and deoxygenation—are often referred to as the "deadly trio" disrupting metabolism, physiology, habitats, and food webs. Sea ice loss directly disrupts marine food webs and ecosystem services. The evaluated climate-related stressors show regional differences. Trends calculated over three consecutive 40-year time periods increase over time. Differences between scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 vary among models and regions, mainly driven by sea-ice retreat and dilution effects. The analysis emphasises regionally varying threats from multiple stressors on Arctic marine ecosystems and highlights the propagation of uncertainties from physical to biogeochemical variables.

Reference: Steiner, N.S., & Reader, C.M. (2024). Trends and projections in climate‐relatedstressors impacting Arctic marineecosystems—A CMIP6 model analysis. J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans, 129, e2024JC020970. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC020970